On Future State of Mass Hydrobiont Populations in Highly-Productive Areas of the World Ocean

Abstract

The long-term linkages between climatic and oceanic processes in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific (SP), and Antarctic waters for the 1950-2012 period have been studied. Based on the revealed relationships between year class strength of mass hydrobiont populations in these regions and climate variations, their state for the next few decades was assessed. In the Northeast Atlantic (NEA), the population of Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NSSH) will possibly be recruited with some strong year classes until the mid-2020s. However, the tendency toward decrease in stock biomass will continue. The biomass of Northeast Arctic cod (NEA cod) will increase, owing to appearance of strong year classes. In the Northwest Pacific, after 2017-2020 there will be two- or threeford (even four- or fivefold, under the present level of poaching) decline of the Asian salmon stocks. The main walleye pollock stocks will increase after 2017 due to appearance of stronger year classes. In the South Pacific, the oceanic horse mackerel population will remain at a low level during the next 15-20 years. The Antarctic krill stocks will grow and become more available for commercial exploitation.